After tipping up the 0-0 between Chelsea and Bournemouth and finding Gustavo Hamer to score first last week,Enock Sakyi is back in the predictions chair.
Crystal Palace vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
I'd be swerving Crystal Palace at odds-on if Marc Guehi remains sidelined. His partnership with Joachim Anderson is pivotal.
The numbers back that up, too. In 16 games since the start of the 21/22 season where one of Guehi or Anderson has been missing, Palace have won just twice, but even more worryingly have shipped 29 goals in those matches, almost two per 90 minutes.
That opens the door for a Fulham goals angle from central areas.
Carlos Vinicius to open the scoring. The striker scored just three minutes after coming on as a sub in Fulham's win over Luton, meaning he's now scored from four of his last eight shots in his last six Premier League appearances.
He's no Aleksander Mitrovic but when handed an opportunity, he rarely lets Marco Silva down and does possess a clinical finishing ability that always makes him a punting option when the price and situation is right. He can score in an away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: Crystal Palace 1-2 Fulham
Luton vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
Pedro Neto has posted the most chances created (17), most crosses (43) and joint-most assists (4) of any player in the Premier League this season.
It's a massive credit to his work ethic that he's managed to rebuild himself back to his best after such a debilitating spell of injuries.
Among his tally of assists this season was his cross for Hee-Chan Hwang in the 3-1 defeat vs Liverpool, where he was without question Wolves' brightest spark.
Luton have looked vulnerable down that flank where Neto operates, having conceded goals from left-wing crosses against Brighton, West Ham and Fulham. His quality might just prove the difference
SCORE PREDICTION: Luton 1-2 Wolves
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm
Nottingham Forest posted the fewest goals scored (11) away from home last season, so, making a case for both teams to score for a trip to, arguably, the greatest team on the planet may raise a few eyebrows.
Forest are a developing team with Steve Cooper trying to employ more attacking ethos to their game - it is working, too.
Unbelievably, Forest have scored in all their last 12 Premier League fixtures, a run of games that included two fixtures against Arsenal and Chelsea plus away trips to Liverpool and Manchester United.
Man City have conceded in six of their eight matches this season with a slight vulnerability on show to teams who can counter with pace and power. And that is how Forest will play this. They can find the net in a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: Fulham 3-1 Nottingham Forest
Brentford vs Everton, Saturday,5.30pm
When a fixture stumps me, it's best to play the draw and that looks the safest passage to explore here.
I'm a lot more positive than the general feel about Everton under Sean Dyche now they've got a focal point to hit in Beto but boy, they were so clueless and bland in their defeat to Arsenal.
Also, Dyche's teams take a while to hit their straps, to the extent the manager hasn't won a Premier League game in August or September since 2019, from his last 14 attempts (D4 L10).
Brentford are notoriously underrated by the market, especially at home.
Bet for a home win will draw many punters in. However, Everton took four points off them last season as there remains an uneasiness about Thomas Frank's side to put away teams when installed as favourites.
It's easy to see this scoreline being a repeat of the 1-1 from last season - in fact, 22 per cent of Brentford's matches across all competitions since the start of last season have ended in that scoreline.
SCORE PREDICTION: Brentford 1-1 Everton
Burnley vs Manchester United, Saturday 8pm
When trying to make smart betting decisions, shutting out the noise surrounding a certain side is critical.
Manchester United have lost each of last three games in all competitions, conceding 10 goals and have big issues to face on and off the field but you must factor in the level of opposition of those three defeats.
Losing to Arsenal, Brighton and Bayern Munich can happen to any team. And fine margins have been at play in all those defeats where the crux of their performance level was still similar to last season.
It's hard to argue against their win possibilities here when you consider their near-perfect record away from home against the bottom half.
Last season, they took 25 points from 30 available and conceded just five goals in those 10 matches - and that sole defeat came at West Ham, a team that went on to win a European trophy so their ranking as a bottom-half side is probably a little misleading.
Erik ten Hag is a manager who can win ugly - and his team will be in that mode for this one.Nine of those 10 matches on the road against the bottom 10 last season also fell under the 2.5 goal line. In fact, the total goal output in those matches was just 1.6 per 90.
SCORE PREDICTION:Burnley 0-1 Manchester United
Arsenal vs Tottenham, Sunday, 2pm
Doctor, just hook this game straight into my veins please. This could be an adrenaline rush of an encounter full of goals, incidents, passion and drama.
For a potential betting interest, I want to be with the Spurs attack across the prop markets. My eyes have been drawn to James Maddison and his price surrounding his shots on target.
He is absolutely revelling in being the centre of attention for Ange Postecoglou, to the extent he's had more shots on target and created more chances per 90 this season than Harry Kane did last season, albeit we're dealing with a small sample size.
That said, his tally of 11 shots on target is only bettered by Erling Haaland (16) and the playmaker has had at least one shot on target in every Premier League match in a Spurs shirt.
SCORE PREDICTION: Arsenal 4-3 Tottenham
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm
Brighton are a majestic football club with the best young manager in world football leading their charge.
I do have doubts about their ability to consistently post big performances with the added extra of the Europa League now on their workflow.
There were a few examples last season of Roberto De Zerbi's side failing to back up a big performance.
Take for instance their 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest after pushing Manchester United to penalties in the FA Cup semi-final and their quite ridiculous 5-1 home defeat to Everton that followed a 1-0 win over United in the Premier League.
De Zerbi does have a deeper squad to work with this season and is a shrewd cookie when it comes to team selection. Saying that, I'm willing to take them on here after their first-ever European night.
SCORE PREDICTION: Brighton 1-1 Bournemoth
Chelsea vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm
Chelsea haven't won any of the last 22 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top 10, losing 12 of those matches.
With confidence low and still no signs of their attacking players being able to arrest that expected goals deficiency, it's so easy to swerve them.
Instead of the outright markets, my punting instincts are being drawn to the Chelsea offside lines.
Yes, I've banged on about it so much but if an edge remains, don't fear backing it again and again. Opposition offsides against Aston Villa remain a sustainable angle of attack.
In their last eight away games, Villa have caught the opposition offside 42 times with seven of those matches seeing the opposition rack up at least three offsides against Villa's aggressive high line. That's a per match average of 5.25 offsides.
SCORE PREDICTION: Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa
Liverpool vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
Since leaving Everton, David Moyes has managed 39 times away at either Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea or Liverpool and has yet to register a victory in a league match, with just six of those ending in draws.
That's 33 defeats, yet 17 of those came by just a one-goal margin.
This means when Moyes takes a team to a 'big six' rival, there is a 43 per cent chance that his team will lose by one goal from quite a hefty sample size of games.
It makes sense as his style does lead to no-thrills match-ups where it can be a slog for the opposition to find a way through.
That has been on show already this season where he has frustrated the likes of Brighton, Chelsea and Manchester City whilst also offering plenty of danger on the counter.
Splitting stakes on a Liverpool 1-0 and 2-1 win .
SCORE PREDICTION: Liverpool 1-0 West Ham
Sheffield United vs Newcastle, Sunday,4.30pm
Newcastle's lack of confidence and fluidity in the final third does make them wobbly favourites especially up against an opposition who have found stability and are functioning as a unit.
Over their past five matches, Eddie Howe's team are only operating at a non-penalty expected goals tally of 0.88 per game - that's over an expected goal down from their 38-game average of 1.89 per 90 across last season.
Of course, that tally will increase with time as the difficulty of their fixture list eases slightly, but I'll want to see some evidence of improvement before putting full trust in them.
With the predicted tougher-than-expected task of breaking down the Blades, it could prove profitable to back the Newcastle corner count line.
They were the Premier League kings at winning corners last season, with 270 - that was 32 more than any other side.
That bulky return stems from a style of football that leads to plenty of scenarios where corners can be won down the channels, where Howe likes to create overloads.
That corner return averaged out at 7.1 per match last season so I was surprised to see the line of Evens available for them to win seven or more corners here in a game where they will dominate territory.
Sheffield United will defend deep, and frustrate, with a focus on soaking up pressure. They have conceded an average of 8.8 corners per match this season, shipping 12 vs Man City and a whopping 15 to Tottenham.
SCORE PREDICTION: Sheffield United 1-1 Newcastle
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