After finding some big-priced winners last weekend, our tipster Enock Sakyi is back and he feels Arsenal will show Liverpool they are the real deal on Sunday, providing predictions across the weekend Premier League card.
Bournemouth vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm
Remember when I tipped Leicester to finish top six this season? A sackable offence, probably.
But, like Brendan Rodgers, I have ducked and dived to great effect. Rodgers' team remain an attacking force to be reckoned with when on song - as seen in the comfortable win over Nottingham Forest. Harvey Barnes and James Maddison are players with Champions League quality, capable of extreme moments of game changing at any point, while Leicester's run of scoring in 27 of their last 28 away games is pretty extraordinary for a team that have struggled.
Bournemouth are tougher to beat now but remain the worst team in the Premier League according to the metrics, losing all four of the expected goals battles under Gary O'Neil.
Maddison now has 14 goal involvements in his last 11 Premier League appearances - only Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne have produced a heftier output. Of those 14 involvements, nine have been goals, identifying him as Leicester's most dangerous attacking weapon.
SCORE PREDICTION: Bournemoth 1-3 Leicester.
Chelsea vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm.
My tendency is to steer clear of any conclusive Chelsea opinions until Graham Potter has firmly got his message across and settled on a consistent team selection.
Based on their fortunate 2-1 win over Crystal Palace, it's a big work in progress still and there is an argument that they remain a bit short in the match results markets.
That could be the case this weekend against a Wolves side I am convinced have the basis of a progressive Premier League team, but obviously needed a change of voice and direction from the dugout after their pretty limp showing at West Ham.
I'll side with Chelsea to win a low-scoring game as Wolves aren't helped by missing Ruben Neves and Nathan Collins through suspension, but those looking for a potential angle should wait for the team news and see if Adama Traore is selected.
He sprung from the bench and looked sharp against West Ham, sending in some decent deliveries from wide areas.
That will make him hard to drop for this one and his direct style always makes the opposition player a potential play in the cards market.
Aaron Cresswell was yellow carded last weekend for stopping a Traore counter, making it 29 yellow cards won by Traore since the start of the 20/21 season, five coming against Potter's Brighton.
With Marc Cucurella injured, Ben Chilwell is likely to play down the left.
SCORE PREDICTION: Chelsea 2-1 Wolves
Manchester City vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm
City's games are becoming the toughest task of my week as from a betting perspective it's so difficult to even begin to find any crumbs of value unless they are taking on a shrewd counter-attacking team.
City have won each of their last 11 home games in all competitions, scoring 47 goals and finding the net at least three times in all those 11 games.
We are living in a Erling Haaland world.
SCORE PREDICTION: Manchester City 4-0 Southampton
Newcastle vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
So, Newcastle did it again. Making me look stupid as they banged home four goals in a game as soon as I bring up their long-term chance creation issues.
I'm not even going to go there this week.
Fabian Schar rates as a promising punt to let fly from outside the area against such a deep defensive line like Brentford's.
Thomas Frank's team like to protect their centre-backs when out of possession and allow plenty of space for central players to take shots from distance.
Only two teams have conceded more shots on their goal from outside the box from open play this season than the Bees (49) with 17 of those hitting the target.
Schar - a centre-back who is a great technician and has an eye for goal from range - has already scored twice from outside the box since Eddie Howe took charge, against Nottingham Forest and Tottenham.
And he's had six shots from outside the box this season in seven appearances, showcasing his willingness to add to his tally.
SCORE PREDICTION: Newcastle 1-1 Brentford
Brighton vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm
When Graham Potter left Brighton, I assumed my unhealthy obsession with Solly March would be over. I was wrong.
New boss Roberto De Zerbi is a fan and seems keen on continuing the player's development to becoming the next Mohamed Salah.
He said: "Solly is a key player for me and I want him to understand how important he is. I want him to keep his responsibilities and look to increase the number of goals he scores because I fully trust in him."
So do I, Roberto.
March remains insanely overpriced across many markets considering his position as the right forward in this fluid Brighton side and an attacking output this season of 1.81 expected goals, 17 shots and eight on target.
Tottenham are allowing their opponents 15.9 shots per game this season and have faced 69 shots in their four away games (17.3 per game) - only Nottingham Forest (76) have faced more.
With March set to cut in off the right onto his favoured foot, chances for his shot count are high in this fixture. I'll be backing all his lines
SCORE PREDICTION: Brighton 1-1 Tottenham
Crystal Palace vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm
I did have to look twice at the Premier League when spotting Crystal Palace level on points with Wolves just outside the drop zone. Something to worry about? I'd suggest not. Palace's opponents this season have had an average league position of 6.86 - they've had, without question, the hardest start of any team.
Leeds are an entertaining watch but are a very vulnerable team out of possession and Palace have the individual quality to punish them.
I'd rather take a price on there being some significant needle in the match - as there is most weeks when Leeds play.
Patrick Vieira and Jesse Marsch also met nine times in New York derbies when managing New York City and New York Red Bulls and Marsch led his side to a 7-0 MLS win vs Vieira's City which remains Vieira's heaviest defeat as a manager.
I'm sure he'll remember that.
SCORE PREDICTION: Crystal Palace 2-1 Leeds.
West Ham vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm
When a counter-attack focused team play a counter-attack focused team, I'm always looking to oppose goals in what could turn out to be a bit of a tactical deadlock.
West Ham and Fulham sit top of the Premier League 'direct speed' charts which measures how quickly a team progresses the ball up the pitch.
Also, between them this season they have only put together 17 situations of where a 10 or more pass sequence either ends in a shot or has at least one touch in the box.
Manchester City have had 58. It's counter-attack all the way for both these teams.
In my quest to back under goals, I'm also going to get greedy and throw a West Ham win into the mix as I'm not convinced this Fulham defence is up to Premier League standard despite a bold start to life back at the top table.
They have shipped at least two goals in seven of their nine games across all competitions this season, including against Crawley Town in the Carabao Cup.
And, their expected goals against data in the Premier League is officially the worst in the league now after last weekend against Newcastle (15.2).
Doubts about the fitness of Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has scored 68 goals in his last 76 games for club and country, also make it hard to foresee a positive Fulham result.
SCORE PREDICTION:West Ham 2-0 Fulham
Arsenal vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm
When playing at home Arsenal have been posting performance metrics that aren't too far away from Manchester City and Liverpool.
Since the start of last season, their average of 2.34 expected goals for per game is only bettered by the 'big two'.
The problem for them here is that one of those big two arrive on their patch having won on their last three visits against the Gunners without conceding a goal.
In fact, Arsenal have failed to score in the last six meetings in all competitions - meaning it's been over 10 hours without a goal vs Liverpool. That will change here.
My main gripe with trusting the long-term data with Liverpool is that their defensive numbers are plummeting, especially away from home.
In fixtures at Fulham, Manchester United, Everton and Napoli, Liverpool have posted an average expected goals conceded per game of 2.2.
That is over a goal more than last season's Premier League 1.19 per game average.
Arsenal, with such a confident and upbeat crowd behind them, are fancied to get this job done.
Martinelli left Alexander-Arnold seeing stars in the corresponding fixture last season and Arsenal will surely be targeting getting the winger in between the lines down the Liverpool right to cause plenty of carnage.
SCORE PREDICTION: Arsenal 3-2 Liverpool
Everton vs Manchester United, Sunday, 7.30pm
Frank Lampard has ticked along very nicely as Everton boss, fighting off relegation and building a team more in keeping with the Everton ethos - what he needs now is a statement victory this season.
And this looks the perfect candidate with Manchester United in town.
Erik ten Hag is still trying to find the right balance in his midfield and that is a big issue. Some things never change.
Everton arrive six games unbeaten and very much a friend of mine.
The Everton spine remains strong to the extent they now have the best defensive record in the Premier League with just seven goals conceded, albeit that is with a back-drop of an expected goals against record of 12.3, so it is an unstainable run.
I'm quite confident in their ability to shut down United's strengths in transition by defending deep, soaking up pressure and using their quality in midfield with Anthony Gordon to hurt the visitors.
A low scoring home win it is.
SCORE PREDICTION: Everton 1-0 Manchester United.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa, Monday 8pm
This game screams low scoring and one that will be settled by fine margins.
Who will get that winning goal then for such two poor attacking outfits then?
Phillipe Coutinho perhaps. He has just one goal involvement in his last 20 Premier League appearances for Aston Villa. It came against Manchester City, too.
Although his legacy at Villa will certainly be bordering on flop territory, he has fired seven shots in his last two games, producing an expected goal figure of 0.67 and did have the ball in the net against Manchester City in the 1-1 draw only for it to be chalked off as the whistle had already been blown.
Steven Gerrard's faith in his former team-mate is unwavering.
The quality remains and will be unleashed at some point, perhaps at the City Ground against one of the most welcoming teams in terms of affording attacking players space.
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